Buildup to Flushing Meadows
The U.S. Open begins next week, an exciting moment for dedicated followers of the "NextGen" youth movement in men's tennis. The under 25 crowd of up-and-comers has yet to break through at a major, with Dominic Thiem's emergence as the world's second best clay court player coinciding with his graduation into a mid-twenties "not quite veteran," lacking the potential to truly challenge the decade-plus period of dominance of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. Older players have gone deep in slams during the reign of the big three, but Stan Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, and Kevin Anderson enjoyed success in finite spurts, never threatening to upset the long-term status quo. Andy Murray's run from 2011-2016 represents a notable exception, though that period featured more of a "big 2" than a "big 4:" Djokovic won eleven majors, Nadal claimed five despite several injuries, and Federer and Murray together had only four (the same as Wawrinka and Cilic's combined total in that span). Not since twenty year-old Juan Martin del Potro's magical run at the '09 U.S. Open ended with back-to-back wins against Nadal and Federer has the young generation seemed poised to meaningfully alter the legacies of the all-time greats.
Over the past couple years, NextGeners Alexander Zverev, Denis Shapovolov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, and others have broken through in big events, even scoring the occasional win against a member of the big three. None of these players have sniffed success at a slam -- Tsitsipas' lone semifinals appearance at the 2019 Australian Open representing their best effort to date. 23 year old Daniil Medvedev, fresh off his first Masters 1000 win and back-to-back victories against Djokovic, is the latest to ascend into this group of young challengers. They won't be able to blame bad draws, having mostly replaced the "old guard" in rounding out the ATP top ten and thus ensuring that their most formidable opponents only threaten in the quarterfinals and beyond. Slam results from the last several years point to the U.S. Open as the best opportunity for a breakthrough from the youngsters: Djokovic owns Australia, Nadal historically dominates Paris, and Wimbledon's grass courts provide a change of pace that will always challenge those with less experience. Six different players since Del Potro's run have won the year's final major (not including Federer, who won every year from '04-'08). Time will tell if someone from the NextGen class can take advantage of their opportunity. (Of note: Medvedev's recent success against Djokovic may prove significant -- the Serb is on a tear much like 2011 and 2015, but can drop his level fast if someone manages to expose a vulnerability in his game -- consider this year's French Open semifinal against Thiem).
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I promised an update on my disc golf. Over the past fifteen days, I have played the same course 28 times -- that's 504 holes in all. Every hole is par 3. I have tracked my scores on every hole from every round, allowing me to analyze the relative difficulties and variances of holes, the distribution of my scores, the distribution of individual outcomes (birdie, par, bogey, etc.), and personal trends on both individual holes and overall performance. I will include some graphics once I head back to school and call it quits on data collection for the summer... for now, I will focus on beating my course record (13 under, set twice, and both times after choking on the final hole).
If you've never played disc golf before, you are really missing out. I promise you do not have play two rounds a day and create complicated spreadsheets to have a good time. You just need a couple of discs, a water bottle, access to transportation, and the good fortune of living near a public park. Endless hours of fun without paying a buck.
Thanks for reading!
Over the past couple years, NextGeners Alexander Zverev, Denis Shapovolov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, and others have broken through in big events, even scoring the occasional win against a member of the big three. None of these players have sniffed success at a slam -- Tsitsipas' lone semifinals appearance at the 2019 Australian Open representing their best effort to date. 23 year old Daniil Medvedev, fresh off his first Masters 1000 win and back-to-back victories against Djokovic, is the latest to ascend into this group of young challengers. They won't be able to blame bad draws, having mostly replaced the "old guard" in rounding out the ATP top ten and thus ensuring that their most formidable opponents only threaten in the quarterfinals and beyond. Slam results from the last several years point to the U.S. Open as the best opportunity for a breakthrough from the youngsters: Djokovic owns Australia, Nadal historically dominates Paris, and Wimbledon's grass courts provide a change of pace that will always challenge those with less experience. Six different players since Del Potro's run have won the year's final major (not including Federer, who won every year from '04-'08). Time will tell if someone from the NextGen class can take advantage of their opportunity. (Of note: Medvedev's recent success against Djokovic may prove significant -- the Serb is on a tear much like 2011 and 2015, but can drop his level fast if someone manages to expose a vulnerability in his game -- consider this year's French Open semifinal against Thiem).
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I promised an update on my disc golf. Over the past fifteen days, I have played the same course 28 times -- that's 504 holes in all. Every hole is par 3. I have tracked my scores on every hole from every round, allowing me to analyze the relative difficulties and variances of holes, the distribution of my scores, the distribution of individual outcomes (birdie, par, bogey, etc.), and personal trends on both individual holes and overall performance. I will include some graphics once I head back to school and call it quits on data collection for the summer... for now, I will focus on beating my course record (13 under, set twice, and both times after choking on the final hole).
If you've never played disc golf before, you are really missing out. I promise you do not have play two rounds a day and create complicated spreadsheets to have a good time. You just need a couple of discs, a water bottle, access to transportation, and the good fortune of living near a public park. Endless hours of fun without paying a buck.
Thanks for reading!
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